Historically, Bitcoin price spikes are driven by speculative overreactions or anticipation feelings in crypto markets due to, for instance, news on the cryptocurrency’s legal status. That triggers sudden surges in demand or sale, often amplified by the global economy. When people have had some extra pocket money always turned to Bitcoin as an investment or, saying it plainly, bet to make some more money away from traditional means.

However, spikes are typically temporary unless the underlying imbalance persists, as markets eventually adapt through alternative supplies or reduced consumption of certain goods or commodities.

In the case of Oil and Gas, examples like the Gulf War or Russia-Ukraine War (RUW) show how quickly prices for some goods can escalate when key producers or infrastructure are threatened. In the case of Bitcoin, it looks like the RUW has a visible impact on Bitcoin and therefore in the rest of the crypto market. Let’s try to explain this correlation in a quick take.

 

The War as a trigger

The Russia-Ukraine war, which escalated significantly in February 2022, has had a complex and multifaceted relationship with Bitcoin prices. While the conflict has influenced Bitcoin through various economic and geopolitical channels, its impact has been neither straightforward nor the primary driver of the cryptocurrency’s value.

Bitcoin is sometimes viewed as a hedge against inflation or a "digital gold" during uncertain times. However, during the RUW, Bitcoin has not consistently acted as a safe-haven asset.

In February 2022, Bitcoin’s price dropped sharply from around $45,000 to $35,000 within days. This decline mirrored broader market sell-offs, indicating that investors treated Bitcoin as a risk asset rather than a safe haven.

After Russia was sanctioned because of the invasion, Russians fled the country or stayed with fearing assets freezing. Regulators pointed out that many of those were already using Bitcoin as a way to bypass the sanctions and liquidate money elsewhere. Although it meant limited amounts by centralized exchanges like Binance the value of the total was of tens of millions of dollars per day. As major exchanges complied with sanctions, and blockchain’s transparency limits large-scale evasion, any significant price impact was reduced.

Later in 2022, Bitcoin’s price showed sensitivity to major war developments, but it largely followed a broader downtrend, peaking at $69,000 in November 2021 and falling to around $15,000 by November 2022, driven more by global economic factors like rising interest rates than the war itself.

 

Bitcoin, sanction evader & fundraising tool

The war has disrupted global energy markets, with Russia being a key supplier of oil and gas and limited to export those due the sanctions. Since Bitcoin mining relies heavily on electricity, rising energy costs also affected mining profitability.

Higher energy prices, particularly in Europe, may have pressured miners in regions dependent on Russian energy. However, Bitcoin’s network adjusts its mining difficulty automatically, and miners can relocate to areas with cheaper energy (as seen after China’s 2021 mining ban). Thus, the war’s impact on Bitcoin’s price via mining has been limited.

Russia increased cryptocurrency trading volumes early in the war, suggesting interest in bypassing sanctions. Western sanctions on Russia raised speculation that cryptocurrencies could help evade financial restrictions, while Ukraine has used Bitcoin for fundraising.

The Ukrainian government and NGOs raised over $100 million in crypto donations, including Bitcoin, to support humanitarian and military efforts. While this boosted local adoption the scale was insufficient to drive Bitcoin’s price globally although there could be a correlation among these funds and the current Bitcoin price: If the Ukrainian NGOs liquidate these, the price could be reasonably affected.

 

Other BTC price volatility causes

Currently Bitcoin has a market cap dropping by 10.62% to $2.75 trillion. This crash is attributed to liquidity concerns and CME gaps, compounded by macroeconomic uncertainty following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of tariffs on Canada and Mexico imports. 

Additionally, Trump's recent push for a U.S. strategic crypto reserve, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano, has stirred both optimism and skepticism. While it initially spiked prices—Bitcoin hit $95,000 briefly on March 3—the lack of concrete details and subsequent market corrections (Bitcoin retracing to $85,000 by early March 4)

Other notable developments include the SEC dropping lawsuits against Kraken and investigations into Yuga Labs, signaling a possible shift in regulatory pressure, alongside Binance’s plan to delist nine stablecoins in Europe by March 31 to comply with MiCA regulations.

Any sudden price downturn could trigger panic among retail investors and weaker hands, leading to a cascade of sell orders. This might push the price even lower temporarily as stop-losses get triggered and fear dominates and will drag altcoins down even more sharply, as they tend to follow BTC’s lead but with amplified volatility. Projects with weaker fundamentals might get hit hardest.

 

What’s for Bitcoin if the Russia-Ukraine War goes on?

Bitcoin’s price is heavily influenced by regulatory changes, institutional adoption, and global liquidity—factors that have dominated its trajectory since the war began.

With every major world economy calm period, the $BTC Price rises again. This has happened in the past, many times. It won't be a catastrophe. No one can predict the exact outcome with certainty—it’s a complex system with too many good and worrisome variables.

The war has broader implications for the global financial system, which could influence Bitcoin over time. If the conflict deepens divisions between economic blocs, Bitcoin’s appeal as a decentralized, neutral asset might grow, potentially increasing demand and supporting its price in the long term.

The Russia-Ukraine war has had a noticeable but limited impact on Bitcoin prices. It has contributed to short-term volatility, particularly during major escalations like the February 2022 invasion, and highlighted Bitcoin’s potential utility in crisis zones (e.g., Ukraine’s fundraising efforts). However, its price has been more strongly driven by broader market trends, such as macroeconomic conditions and cryptocurrency-specific events, than by the war itself.

The relationship remains complex, with the war acting as one of many factors influencing Bitcoin’s price rather than the defining one.

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